Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 63%. Yes opened at 93.5% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 93.5% on 28 Aug 2026 and the low 61% on 30 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 62% on 29 Aug 2026. $92.99 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 5, 6:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 93.5% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 63.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| menthe2 | No | 50 |
| bjprolo | No | 8 |
| Weepy-Item | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nebraska has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Nebraska carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Nebraska market and make no claim about Nebraska's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-d4-drought-2026-09-01
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