Analytics
Resolved Up on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Up at 92.5%. The Up side opened at 58% on 28 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.9% on 26 Apr 2026 and the lowest 27% on 14 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 93% on 24 Apr 2026. $4.83K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 7:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 28 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2026 | 58.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 92.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Muted-Snowstorm | Down | 400 |
| PaddyAlpha | Down | 200 |
| TooYoungToWin | Down | 35.5 |
| polkiajd | Down | 34.05 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
According to YouGov's most recent data point, the percentage of all adults who think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister was 21% as of March 23, 2026 (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the next respective data point released is exactly 21%, or if no new data point is published by April 30, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the approval tracker "How well is Keir Starmer doing as Prime Minister?" by YouGov (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the specified source will be used for resolution, regardless of methodological changes or projections by other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/starmer-approval-up-or-down-in-april
| ceysad | Down | 30 |
| hesure | Down | 20 |
| Sid999 | Down | 17.24 |
| Tsokis | Down | 7.13 |
| rocketcrypto | Down | 5 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | Down | 5 |
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