Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89.9%. Yes opened at 8% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 10.1% on 3 Aug 2026 and the low 7% on 2 Aug 2026. $424.69 traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 4, 7:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 3 Aug 2026, chart shows 2%–14%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 8.0% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 10.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| slumdogbillionaire | Yes | 35.71 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 20 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on August 3?
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spy-closes-above-on-august-3-2026
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