Analytics
Resolved No on 18 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 60%. Yes opened at 36% on 16 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 47% on 17 May 2026 and the low 36% on 16 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 47% on 17 May 2026. $32.75K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 19, 9:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 16 May 2026 – 18 May 2026, chart shows 30%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | 36.0% |
| 18 May 2026 | 40.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kjax | Yes | 315 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| benq | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| jan0000 | Yes | 30 |
| Silver Sphinx AD2F | Yes | 18.18 |
| abryant42 | Yes | 6.67 |
| Deserted-Shopping | Yes | 6 |
| Royal Vector E768 | Yes | 5.38 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 18?
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spy-closes-above-on-may-18-2026
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