Analytics
Resolved No on 4 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 86.5%. Yes opened at 4% on 2 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 16.5% on 3 May 2026 and the low 4% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 16.5% on 3 May 2026. $2.6K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 7:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 2 May 2026 – 4 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | 4.0% |
| 4 May 2026 | 13.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 44444444ben | Yes | 116.15 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| shiblano | Yes | 22 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Elchachocoudet5 | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spy-closes-above-on-may-4-2026
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