Analytics
Resolved Down on 23 Oct 2026.
The last price read before settlement had Down at 100%. The Up side was at 46% at 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC, the earliest read in hand. Before it settled, across 3 price reads from 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC, the highest read was 46% on 23 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. $7.86K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 11:06 AM UTC
6-hour closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Oct, 06:00 UTC – 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 46.0% |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny101 | Up | 2.3K |
| rtgdfbert | Up | 1.54K |
| Hollow-Month | Up | 630 |
| absolutelynoclue | Up | 265.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 23 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 23 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-october-23-2026
| Watchful-Softening | Up | 239.63 |
| grasstoucher69 | Down | 106.05 |
| PiratePyro | Up | 100 |
| CaptainBNB-ORIGIN | Up | 38.09 |
| a5533 | Up | 35.28 |
| bjprolo | Up | 20 |
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