
Resolved No on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 20.4% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 20.4% on 8 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 5.1% on 9 Jan 2026. $4.52K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 20.4% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| e8t | Yes | 799.97 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 303 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 246.86 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 220 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of January 2026?
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-hit-jan-2026
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 197 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
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| Defizz | Yes | 79.78 |
| tiancs | Yes | 49.98 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 49.97 |