Analytics
Resolved Yes on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 31 Jan 2026, the highest close was 100% on 31 Jan 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 14 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 86% on 27 Jan 2026. $21.19K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 47.5% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| qqqq88888 | No | 1K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 598 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 369 |
| osjaks | No | 266.58 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-above-jan-2026
| ttj01 | No | 250 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 228 |
| macro888 | No | 216.44 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 211 |
| CallSatan | No | 202.02 |
| ojvuikm | No | 158.68 |
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