Analytics
Yes is at 15.3%, down 33 points from 48% when the market opened on 23 Apr 2026.
Across the 183 daily closes on record from 23 Apr 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69% on 16 May 2026 and the lowest 3% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.6%; a month before, 7.8%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 24% on 3 Sep 2026.
$1.49K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $321.47, with a 22.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 34 trades, $334.62 bought Yes and $289.22 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Informal-Crystallography with 218 shares; the largest No position is Failing-Obsidian with 234. Ten wallets hold 96.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 11:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 183 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 48.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 15.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 233.81 |
| Informal-Crystallography | Yes | 217.57 |
| Thorough-Dirndl | No | 204.29 |
On April 21, 2026, the United States Department of Justice announced an indictment against the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) including charges of wire fraud and bank fraud, among others (see: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/g-s1-118275/southern-poverty-law-center-fraud-charges-paid-informants). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the SPLC is found guilty of any charges in this case by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first official judgment rendered in this case that results in a judgment of guilt, or finally disposes of the charges without a judgment of guilt. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/splc-found-guilty-in-2026
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 105.62 |
| Lawfare | No | 101.33 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 71.2 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 60 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 40 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| Wartlock | No | 17.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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