Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.5%. Yes opened at 40% on 4 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 123 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 12 Jun 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 4 Feb 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 11.5% on 5 Feb 2026. $2.52M traded over the market's life.
290 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 13, 10:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 123 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 12 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 40.0% |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 6.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Brilliant-Pancake | Yes | 448.9K |
| Olivine24 | Yes | 126.16K |
| m12923 | Yes | 63.3K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above
| Yes |
| 61.86K |
| dada20 | Yes | 33.1K |
| Jagged-Residue | Yes | 21.57K |
| Honky | Yes | 20.46K |
| FrPac | Yes | 15.6K |
| Mashtots | Yes | 11.49K |
| Bgf56 | Yes | 9.21K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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