Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 48% on 30 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2026 to 3 Feb 2026, the highest close was 100% on 3 Feb 2026 and the lowest 48% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 100% on 3 Feb 2026. $104.5K traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 4, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 48.0% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gudus | No | 6.84K |
| Vapid-Comic | No | 3.5K |
| NAA | No | 1.58K |
| Baconnnnn | No | 950 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by SpaceX or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-and-xai-merger-offcially-announced-by-june-30
| DavidSoto1721 | No | 896 |
| bitlogan | No | 670 |
| Mad-Geyser | No | 482.57 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 362 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 346 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 316 |
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