Analytics
Yes is at 18.3%, down 32 points from 50% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 87 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 71.2% on 8 Sep 2026 and the lowest 15.2% on 7 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28.4%; a month before, 25.7%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 54.3% on 19 Aug 2026.
$26.32 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.43K since listing. The order book holds $10.8K, with a 4.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 226 trades, $1.05K bought Yes and $2.21K bought No.
The largest Yes position is noviceprotrader with 577 shares; the largest No position is Hot-SkullHomelessBegger with 726. Ten wallets hold 83.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 18.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hot-SkullHomelessBegger | No | 725.53 |
| noviceprotrader | Yes | 576.59 |
| Violet Harbor 1B48 | Yes | 447.59 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested-by
| AAKELO | Yes | 424.15 |
| spacegliderr | No | 329.95 |
| Termostating | No | 287.88 |
| gtrade93 | No | 231.64 |
| kir18 | No | 210.02 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 157.57 |
| Betoherrera | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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