Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97%. Yes opened at 35.5% on 11 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 70.5% on 13 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 4 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 70.5% on 13 Jun 2026. $1.38K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 9:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 35.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 2.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/screwworm-national-emergency-declared-byptptpt-20260609150610739
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