Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.5%. Yes opened at 18% on 5 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 176 daily closes on record from 5 Oct 2023 to 28 Mar 2024, the highest close was 36.5% on 2 Nov 2023 and the lowest 9.5% on 28 Mar 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 36.5% on 2 Nov 2023. $363.28K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 176 points, 5 Oct 2023 – 28 Mar 2024, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2023 | 18.0% |
| 28 Mar 2024 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nickbtts | Yes | 10.03K |
| 68D00B23d | Yes | 5.7K |
| SBF's Lawyer | Yes | 5.38K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to 50 or more years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of Oct 3, 2023) by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial. If SBF's ongoing trial ends (e.g. mistrial) without the rendering of a sentence, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sbf-sentenced-to-50-years
New to prediction markets?
| Nasreddin | Yes | 4.91K |
| 0xKaida | Yes | 500 |
| HHHHHH | No | 293.68 |
| spiralstrat | Yes | 264.23 |
| 0xc8 | Yes | 207.69 |
| aktwenty | Yes | 139.41 |
| blablass | Yes | 134.39 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
