Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Apr 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.3%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 29 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 29 Feb 2024 to 18 Apr 2024, the highest close was 32.5% on 29 Feb 2024 and the lowest 2.7% on 7 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 7.5% on 30 Mar 2024. $184.92K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 29 Feb 2024 – 18 Apr 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Feb 2024 | 32.5% |
| 18 Apr 2024 | 6.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MaxMeng | Yes | 5K |
| 11235813 | Yes | 1.17K |
| LoveCoinConnect | Yes | 19.23 |
| ALE | Yes | 15.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Samuel Bankman-Fried is due to be sentenced on March 28, 2024, as a result of the verdict reached in the 2023 "United States of America v. Samuel Bankman-Fried" trial. This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF's sentence in this case is shorter than it would be otherwise because he is autistic. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the judge's/court's comments during the initial sentencing. For this market to resolve to "Yes", the sentencing judge/court must explicitly mention that autism is a specific mitigating factor during his sentencing. Vague references to medical or psychiatric disorders will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". If sentencing doesn't occur in 2024, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the presiding court in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sbf-reduced-sentence-because-autism
| DylanSC | No | 1.05 |
| myst | No | 0.02 |
| polychad-914 | No | 0.01 |
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