Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 18 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 198 daily closes on record from 18 Jun 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 49% on 18 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 45 points up, to 49% on 18 Jul 2024. $64.16K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 3:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 198 points, 18 Jun 2024 – 1 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2024 | 6.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Harbor F255 | Yes | 170.65 |
| jimmysausages | Yes | 90.18 |
| erttrwwtrtw | No | 14.29 |
On June 17, Ryan Selkis posted a tweet suggesting that Garry Gensler ordered a political hit on him (see: https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1802719512241770625). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ryan Selkis (@twobitidiot) is arrested between June 16 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against Ryan Selkis and information from Selkis's legal representatives will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ryan-selkis-arrested-in-2024
| Probable-Sourwood | Yes | 12.5 |
| CelestialCrafter | Yes | 11.25 |
| Averbs1234 | No | 11.22 |
| Twizzler | Yes | 10 |
| PolyDump | Yes | 9.09 |
| 353 | Yes | 4.17 |
| HGFd356 | No | 0.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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