Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 67%. Yes opened at 54.5% on 21 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 68.5% on 30 Sep 2026 and the low 27.5% on 2 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 27.5% on 2 Oct 2026. $1.48K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 8:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 13 points · 21 Sep 2026 – 3 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026 | 54.5% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 33.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 450.09 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| Coral Maven 2F5C | Yes | 89.99 |
| carelia | Yes | 41 |
| Azure Orbit 35DA | No | 27.7 |
| Fearful-Wastebasket | Yes | 27.29 |
| Fitting-Pickle | Yes | 15.2 |
| Sleepy-Cactus | Yes | 6 |
| e46m3 | No | 0.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 3 2026 If Leinster wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ruurc-sha-lei-2026-10-03
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