Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 23%. Yes opened at 52% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 25 Apr 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78% on 24 Apr 2026 and the lowest 51% on 18 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 78% on 24 Apr 2026. $22.63 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 8:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 25 Apr 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 52.0% |
| 25 Apr 2026 | 77.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 5.58 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Leinster wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Resolution source: https://www.unitedrugby.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ruurc-ben-lei-2026-04-25
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