Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 24% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 24% on 10 Sep 2025 and the low 0.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 5.1% on 11 Sep 2025. $1.66M traded over the market's life.
117 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 11:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 22 points · 10 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | 24.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tupac | Yes | 112.3K |
| tomato-juice | Yes | 44.32K |
| fiutcj | Yes | 28.03K |
| zeihan | Yes | 24.99K |
| Joe-Biden | Yes | 22.09K |
| czsamsun | Yes | 20.85K |
| miutxd | Yes | 19.92K |
| guitarwolf | Yes | 19.63K |
| iobjiu | Yes | 16.58K |
| Teufelsberg | Yes | 5.28K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30
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