Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 22 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 22 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 9.5% on 22 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Nov 2025. $4.9M traded over the market's life.
479 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 22 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MrNGMI | Yes | 39.18K |
| EthiopianArcher | Yes | 28.5K |
| nihikis | Yes | 24.88K |
| Lowaz | Yes | 20K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-november-30-513
| uncc | Yes | 18.74K |
| Fattytuna | Yes | 17.75K |
| Fesfouss | Yes | 17.72K |
| techbr0ther | Yes | 17.38K |
| Eaglebetx | Yes | 13.06K |
| Johnson1 | Yes | 11.72K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
