Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 12 Mar 2025. Before it settled, the high was 8.5% on 12 Mar 2025 and the low 0.1% on 15 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 2.1% on 13 Mar 2025. $2.31M traded over the market's life.
54 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 16, 5:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 12 Mar 2025 – 15 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2025 | 8.5% |
| 15 Mar 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TychoBrahe | Yes | 103.23K |
| abcdefg512 | Yes | 44.97K |
| Dizzy-Cost | Yes | 34.55K |
| Unwitting-Cuisine | Yes | 23.31K |
| ManWithThePlan | Yes | 21K |
| reews | Yes | 20.38K |
| Tombori | Yes | 18.4K |
| Megatron747 | Yes | 14.8K |
| capitulatir | Yes | 14.3K |
| krashe85 | Yes | 10.18K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-friday
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