Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4% on 16 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 16 Jan 2025 to 5 Feb 2025, the highest close was 4% on 16 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2025. $1.36M traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 12:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 16 Jan 2025 – 5 Feb 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2025 | 4.0% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gosmo | Yes | 108.66K |
| DiscoDonnie | Yes | 83.92K |
| Genie69Bravo | Yes | 38.55K |
| farmyboi | Yes | 12.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-february-1
| Britzy | Yes | 12.23K |
| Stinkbro | Yes | 8.33K |
| serpyer | Yes | 7.61K |
| hghhh. | Yes | 5K |
| ketib2 | Yes | 4.7K |
| Mikegrootjans | Yes | 2.6K |
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