Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 7 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 5.1% on 8 Aug 2025 and the low 0.1% on 16 Aug 2025. $1.57M traded over the market's life.
150 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 8:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 7 Aug 2025 – 16 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | 2.9% |
| 16 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Drizzl3r | Yes | 168.86K |
| Bink_7 | Yes | 50K |
| Winch | Yes | 44.34K |
| NemTortenikSohaSemmi | Yes | 34.64K |
| polor | Yes | 32.34K |
| fastbet24 | Yes | 27.58K |
| Fesfouss | Yes | 26.97K |
| alfridus | Yes | 16.86K |
| Bright Atlas 2661 | Yes | 14.42K |
| timeone | Yes | 13.16K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by August 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-august-15
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
