Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 70%. Yes opened at 50% on 11 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 11 Mar 2026 to 23 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 12 Mar 2026 and the lowest 28% on 18 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 33.5% on 16 Mar 2026.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 10:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 11 Mar 2026 – 23 Mar 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 23 Mar 2026 | 30.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| asasha | Yes | 11.58K |
| Misty Horizon A7C6 | Yes | 382.31 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 158.97 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 124.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 23, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution source: https://www.lpf.ro/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/rou1-aus-aog-2026-03-23
| Cylindrical-Stylus | Yes | 31.16 |
| Old-Core | Yes | 25 |
| Cannae | Yes | 21.48 |
| gugoogaga | Yes | 10 |
| Obedient-Planning | Yes | 9.58 |
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 7.4 |
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