Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 67.5% on 19 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 349 daily closes on record from 19 Mar 2025 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 73.5% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 20 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 56 points down, to 17% on 15 Jan 2026. $68.14K traded over the market's life.
125 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 349 points, 19 Mar 2025 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2025 | 67.5% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| peter19961996 | Yes | 851.85 |
| bitseneca | Yes | 636 |
| Amber Pioneer 17DE | Yes | 327.36 |
On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No". If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/rojas-guilty-in-texas-illegal-abortion-case
| Bright Scout A2AD | Yes | 307.28 |
| Bold Maven 576A | Yes | 292.99 |
| Cobalt Falcon 61F9 | Yes | 281.69 |
| Royal Atlas C501 | Yes | 274.9 |
| Amber Lynx 265B | Yes | 220 |
| Royal Horizon 96F0 | Yes | 204.52 |
| Neon Horizon 42D8 | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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