Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 17 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 166 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 27% on 19 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 29 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 27% on 19 Jan 2025. $19.41K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 166 points, 17 Jan 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2025 | 16.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| daqi | Yes | 900.59 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 458 |
| Gottacatchemall | Yes | 293.36 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Xiaohongshu (小红书, RedNote) iOS app is no longer available for download on the United States Apple App Store at any point between January 16, 11:00 AM and June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the app is inaccessible due to technical issues with the App Store itself, this will not count as a removal. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Apple and the Apple App Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/rednote-removed-from-app-store-before-july
New to prediction markets?
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 196.73 |
| Strident-Alpha | Yes | 127.6 |
| Fartanium | Yes | 116 |
| zdlgrj | Yes | 100 |
| ?x?x? | Yes | 87.84 |
| evperel | Yes | 70.63 |
| TheQrunch | Yes | 28.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
