Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.3%. Yes opened at 18% on 26 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026, the highest close was 18% on 26 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 28 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.4 points down, to 1.1% on 24 Jul 2026. $902.41 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 26 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | 18.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 7.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Reckless-Hacienda | Yes | 52.95 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 7.89 |
| Swift Pulse 69A4 | Yes | 7.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Reckless Ben (a.k.a. Benjamin Schneider) is arrested between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/reckless-ben-arrested-by-july-31-20260625151954453
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 4.99 |
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