Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 23 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 49.5% on 23 Sep 2025 and the low 0.1% on 18 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 7% on 24 Sep 2025. $29.01K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 102 points, 23 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2025 | 49.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | Yes | 3.75K |
| whitewhale34 | Yes | 500 |
| Olka | Yes | 387.89 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Rainbow's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Rainbow (https://rainbow.me/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/rainbow-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
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