Analytics
“Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Al Ula (BO1) - Esports World Cup Play-In Group A” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Aug 4, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 8 hourly price points from Jul 28, 2026 to Aug 4, 2026 (Yes between 48.5% and 88.5%); 23 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 96.3% of the loaded shares; 53 recent public fills from 30 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Shopify Rebellion and Al Ula in the Esports World Cup Play-In Group A, initially scheduled for August 4 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against Al Ula. This market will resolve to "Al Ula" if Al Ula win the match against Shopify Rebellion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/r6siege-sr-aiu-2026-08-04
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| boobytracey | Al Ula | 3.08K |
| Beneficial-Climate | Al Ula | 1.67K |
| kunkun168 | Al Ula | 503.67 |
| Exciting-Fir | Al Ula | 344.17 |
| poshposh | Al Ula | 116.21 |
| bravewarriorrrrrr | Al Ula | 114.24 |
| Fitting-Pickle | Al Ula | 106.79 |
| Simplistic-Questionnaire-Brand | Al Ula | 73.63 |
| grandculp | Al Ula | 72 |
| SERINAITE | Al Ula | 43.36 |