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“Rainbow Six Siege: Circular Spheres vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 2 Group Stage” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Sep 15, 2026. As of Sep 15, 4:19 AM, Yes trades at 60.0¢, a 60.0% implied chance, $760.17 traded in the last 24 hours, $149.5 resting in the order book, a 14.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 12 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 50.0% and 68.5%); 12 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.4% of the loaded shares; 7 recent public fills from 4 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between Circular Spheres and Man eSports LFO in the Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Circular Spheres" if Circular Spheres win the match against Man eSports LFO. This market will resolve to "Man eSports LFO" if Man eSports LFO win the match against Circular Spheres. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 15, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/r6siege-cs-man-2026-09-15
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| goingbackto505 | Circular Spheres | 673.92 |
| GOLDCRYPT12 | Man ESports LFO | 498.91 |
| nibnibinibi | Man ESports LFO | 69.99 |
| RadioFreeZerg | Man ESports LFO | 59.99 |
| nicolitoso | Man ESports LFO | 32.62 |
| chux.cc | Man ESports LFO | 30 |
| a5533 | Circular Spheres | 19.99 |
| Hacksaw21 | Man ESports LFO | 10 |
| chaeri | Circular Spheres | 9.51 |
| JohaSA | Circular Spheres | 6.76 |