Analytics
Yes is at 0.5%, down 10 points from 10.6% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.6% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.3%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 39.6% on 3 Oct 2026.
120-210mm ranks third of the 7 outcomes in “Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?”. 70-120mm leads at 96.4%; 210mm+ is at 0.8%.
$213.37 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16.34K since listing. The order book holds $1.21K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 355 trades, $1.25K bought Yes and $3.41K bought No.
The largest Yes position is WeatherHK2 with 611 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 80.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 10.6% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.74K |
| WeatherHK2 | Yes | 611.47 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 455.93 |
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-october-20260925t160000000z
| macao.weather | Yes | 400 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 353.35 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 345.54 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 293.66 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 237.51 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 195.86 |
| Anikka12 | Yes | 157.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
