Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 5.5% on 10 Sep 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Oct 2025. $89.44K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 12:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 22 points · 10 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Yamaleo | Yes | 5.2K |
| ExShinra | Yes | 3.84K |
| polishit | Yes | 1.43K |
| varsityalex1 | Yes | 1.25K |
| Thomander | Yes | 1.15K |
| gexua | Yes | 666.67 |
| ArnoNuehmus | Yes | 421.43 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 133 |
| tupac | Yes | 130 |
| MDK-EDK | Yes | 117.65 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Poland initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Russian soil or any official Russian embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Polish military forces that impact Russian ground territory or any official Russian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Russian soil is hit by a Polish missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Russian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Polish ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/polish-strike-on-russia-by-september-30
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