Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 20% on 2 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 118 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2025 to 31 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26% on 5 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 25.5% on 4 Dec 2025. $295.96K traded over the market's life.
144 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 31 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2025 | 20.0% |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Chileno901 | Yes | 10.03K |
| rulki | No | 9.25K |
| Golden Quasar EAC4 | Yes | 5K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 4.24K |
| 49an9bZ3jai | Yes | 3.09K |
| BarbaraStreisand | Yes | 2.56K |
| frankoneill | Yes | 2.06K |
| steamrolling | Yes | 2K |
| fz2 | Yes | 1.96K |
| Stewbacca | Yes | 1.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
