Analytics
Yes is at 3.9%, down 12 points from 16% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 136 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 23 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.4% on 24 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 3.9%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 14.5% on 26 Jul 2026.
$47.75K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $14.94K, with a 2.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.96K bought Yes and $2.46K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Self-Reliant-Gator with 846 shares; the largest No position is FrozenParasite with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 71.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 136 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 16.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrozenParasite | No | 1.07K |
| Self-Reliant-Gator | Yes | 846.35 |
| chinchonfan | No | 698 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026
| plataoplomo-670 | Yes | 569.39 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 478.64 |
| Arid-Prey | Yes | 199.8 |
| LuxTenebris | No | 195.39 |
| vinii | Yes | 172.86 |
| Jredhead | Yes | 167.93 |
| GenaTheBondKilIer | No | 160.68 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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