Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99%. Yes opened at 49% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 13 Jul 2026, the highest close was 99% on 13 Jul 2026 and the lowest 43.5% on 6 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 43.5% on 6 Jul 2026. $856.38 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 14, 6:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 13 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 49.0% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 99.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RealHLM | No | 124.49 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| oiram18 | No | 100 |
| triklozoid | No | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/paris-heat-wave-by-july-31-20260630174856599
| dodgerlive | No | 13.41 |
| Braden011 | No | 11.63 |
| hesure | No | 10 |
| MarquisDeMott | No | 1.01 |
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