Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 3 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 17.5% on 4 Dec 2025. $14.32K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 48.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| saibasi | Yes | 157.89 |
| 678907 | Yes | 124.56 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 115 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Gavin Newsom' in the "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market (https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?tid=1764680585562) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any four-hour period ending by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-newsom-dem-pres-nominee-over-40-by-december-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/odds-of-newsom-dem-pres-nominee-by-december-31
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 64.49 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | Yes | 62.59 |
| Kanp | Yes | 45.91 |
| Owwwnn | Yes | 40.43 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 39 |
| Cronnozzz | Yes | 35.78 |
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