Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 81%. Yes opened at 73.5% on 16 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 118 daily closes on record from 16 Dec 2025 to 18 Apr 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 82% on 18 Jan 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 7 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 32.5% on 10 Feb 2026. $54.3K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 22, 8:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 16 Dec 2025 – 18 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2025 | 73.5% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | 19.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| IulianaB | Yes | 1.6K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | Yes | 1.01K |
| efficientbetting | Yes | 662.2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Octra's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Octra (https://x.com/octra) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/octra-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| Yes |
| 634.27 |
| Smoggy-Avocado | Yes | 208.73 |
| Olka | Yes | 120 |
| 0xdumz | Yes | 94.05 |
| BurakETH | Yes | 93.49 |
| kanamin1 | Yes | 90 |
| moondrop00 | Yes | 73.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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