Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 24 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 163 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 6% on 1 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Dec 2025. $330.78K traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 163 points, 24 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GimmeDaLoot | Yes | 40.02K |
| yoyo22 | Yes | 10.96K |
| teddy232 | Yes | 4.66K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/obama-arrested-in-2025
| Yes |
| 4.42K |
| ivomax | Yes | 4.12K |
| Frizzy-Vogue | Yes | 3.93K |
| jawnny | Yes | 1.29K |
| mrbeo | Yes | 1K |
| demeroty | Yes | 500 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 478 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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