Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 84% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 99.6% on 29 Dec 2025 and the low 84% on 5 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 95.5% on 22 Nov 2025. $29.41K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 59 points · 5 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 84.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PCMTest | No | 5.54K |
| AllByMyseIf | No | 2.06K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 406 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | No | 265.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The listed individuals are: - Diddy - Ghislaine Maxwell - Sam Bankman-Fried - Elizabeth Holmes - Derek Chauvin Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-trump-pardon-edition
| BadLuckRichi | No | 217.67 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 197 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 193 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 149 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 108 |
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