Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 8 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2025 to 25 Oct 2025, the highest close was 43.5% on 20 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 0.1% on 25 Oct 2025. $67.66K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 26, 8:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 8 Oct 2025 – 25 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2025 | 33.5% |
| 25 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MadetoTrade | Yes | 1.72K |
| breezy | Yes | 1.03K |
| namespaceqq | Yes | 1.02K |
| wobo7 | Yes | 333 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia captured the Pokrovsk train station - Russia captured Kupiansk - Russia captured Kostyantynivka - Russia captured Siversk - Russia captured Shakhove Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Russian+Capture+Edition.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-russian-capture-edition
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 258 |
| investorbet | Yes | 161.64 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 132 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 132 |
| FabulousCar | Yes | 100 |
| skepticynic | Yes | 89.23 |
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