Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.4%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 10 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 85 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 98.7% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 55.5% on 10 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 82% on 9 Dec 2025. $49.57K traded over the market's life.
70 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 55.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 97.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hengify | No | 4K |
| ilovefaker123 | No | 2.18K |
| gopfan2 | No | 899.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - A hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A megaquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Natural+Disaster+Edition.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-natural-disaster-edition
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