Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 83% on 12 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 113 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.9% on 31 Dec 2025 and the lowest 68.5% on 24 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 78% on 20 Sep 2025. $635.33K traded over the market's life.
191 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 12 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2025 | 83.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| satoshiAncap | No | 15.24K |
| AB2 | No | 3.24K |
| FamBoy | No | 2K |
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Nuclear weapon detonated - Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize - Ukraine election called - US-Russia nuclear deal - Mass Gaza population relocation - Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war2.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/war3.png
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-military-edition
| No |
| 1.55K |
| Tart-Descent | No | 1.22K |
| dontshowmyname | No | 1K |
| Chanco | No | 960 |
| retrozzz | No | 625 |
| LukeGamma | No | 593 |
| chosen17 | No | 557.6 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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