Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.8%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 30% on 30 Aug 2025 and the low 2.8% on 14 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 15% on 2 Sep 2025. $173.22K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 17, 8:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 16 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 28.5% |
| 16 Sep 2025 | 3.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ciro2 | Yes | 5.51K |
| horiz0n | Yes | 4.91K |
| Kickstand8 | Yes | 4.02K |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 1.28K |
| Chaitea | No | 702.44 |
| JustBeHappy | Yes | 250 |
| electronbets | Yes | 218.52 |
| Paul8x1 | Yes | 198.87 |
| Maskache | Yes | 155.71 |
| Loqox | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile test between August 26, 2:00 PM ET, and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Resolution source: https://www.nknews.org/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-test-by-september-15
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