Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.3%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 4 Jan 2026, the highest close was 98.3% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 26% on 3 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 72 points up, to 98.3% on 4 Jan 2026. $34.14K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 5, 8:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 55.5% |
| 4 Jan 2026 | 98.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lunar Horizon 27BE | No | 7K |
| funding | No | 4K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 664 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 481 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-launch-by-january-31-413
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 362 |
| L30GC | No | 342.63 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 296 |
| dazmolybiz | No | 247.54 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 167 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 153 |
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