Analytics
Resolved Yes on 27 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 52.5%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 20 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 20 Jan 2026 to 27 Jan 2026, the highest close was 65% on 23 Jan 2026 and the lowest 52.5% on 27 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 59% on 24 Jan 2026. $21K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 28, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 20 Jan 2026 – 27 Jan 2026, chart shows 50%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | 57.5% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | 52.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | No | 1.5K |
| bauenohnelimit | No | 1K |
| Worried-Hog | No | 969.57 |
| Ted.K | No | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-launch-by-february-28
| Helpful-Girlfriend | No | 499.99 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 346 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 279 |
| Pointed-Console | No | 217.19 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 201 |
| Tight-Spyglass | No | 198.17 |
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