Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.5%. Yes opened at 23% on 7 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 7 Dec 2025 to 11 Mar 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23% on 7 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.8% on 3 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 4% on 8 Dec 2025.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 11, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 7 Dec 2025 – 11 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Dec 2025 | 23.0% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 3.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TrenKennedy | Yes | 177.6 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | Yes | 140.49 |
| Lunar Ledger A23A | Yes | 106.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any sex tape featuring Nick Fuentes, is made public between December 6, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying "sex tapes" must be video footage involving sexual acts directly depicting the genitals of any individual(s) shown. The video must be authentic, not animated or AI-altered. The primary resolution source will be publicly released video, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nick-fuentes-sex-tape-released-by-march-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 61.11 |
| abc1231112441 | Yes | 42 |
| paas2 | Yes | 26.94 |
| Mayonezzzz | Yes | 22.22 |
| Calm-Mass | Yes | 16.95 |
| Wrathful-Cough | Yes | 16.67 |
| Intent-Pinworm | Yes | 13.16 |
