Analytics
Resolved Lightning on 23 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Lightning at 47.5%. The Lightning side opened at 50% on 27 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2025 to 23 Nov 2025, the highest close was 59.5% on 20 Nov 2025 and the lowest 43% on 15 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 59.5% on 20 Nov 2025. $900.72K traded over the market's life.
269 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 24, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Lightning price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 27 Oct 2025 – 23 Nov 2025, chart shows 35%–65%
| Observed | Lightning price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 23 Nov 2025 | 47.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SeriouslySirius | Capitals | 136.7K |
| ZerOptimist | Capitals | 35K |
| Painfulvoid | Capitals | 17.08K |
| Minor-Armour | Capitals | 7.68K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for November 22 at 2:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nhl-tb-wsh-2025-11-22
| statwC00KS | Capitals | 5.42K |
| simon51 | Capitals | 5.1K |
| Roro77 | Capitals | 5K |
| sadilamb | Capitals | 3.12K |
| mewtwozelda | Capitals | 3K |
| 4-seas | Capitals | 2.85K |
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