Analytics
Resolved Lightning on 14 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Lightning at 56.5%. The Lightning side opened at 63% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 68.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the low 52.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 60% on 11 Jan 2026. $382.33K traded over the market's life.
122 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 15, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Lightning price, Polymarket CLOB · 28 points · 18 Dec 2025 – 14 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 45%–75%
| Observed | Lightning price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 63.0% |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 56.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jmm20 | Penguins | 27.16K |
| knedloveprovelo | Penguins | 15.51K |
| casnintendo | Penguins | 6.27K |
| Neigel | Penguins | 5K |
| royalestake | Penguins | 4.55K |
| Painfulvoid | Penguins | 4.43K |
| AnonymousUsername | Penguins | 3.25K |
| holycharon | Penguins | 2.49K |
| EVplusrebate | Penguins | 2K |
| Bienville | Penguins | 1.98K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 13 at 7:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nhl-tb-pit-2026-01-13
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