Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 4.2% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 4.2% on 17 Mar 2026 and the low 0.9% on 21 Mar 2026.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 3:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 4.2% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| wxy7766 | Yes | 1K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 999.99 |
| junglediff | Yes | 523.86 |
| MrAlmostWhale | Yes | 461.56 |
| bigdicknick | Yes | 330 |
| Insistent-Advantage | Yes | 312.12 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 300 |
| Amber Pulse 273B | Yes | 241.43 |
| AnthonyHooks | Yes | 222.09 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any team that is a number 16 seed wins any game during any round of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament, starting with the round of 64. First Four games will not be considered. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If an opponent of any number 16 seed forfeits prior, or during the matchup, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is partially completed with otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ncaa-tournament-no-16-seed-to-win-a-game
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