Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.3%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 15 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 15 Mar 2026 to 21 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 30.5% on 15 Mar 2026 and the lowest 5.8% on 21 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.7 points down, to 5.8% on 21 Mar 2026.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 7:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 15 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | 30.5% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 5.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Portly-Crystallography | Yes | 734.29 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 491.88 |
| Flawless-Stepmother | Yes | 352.81 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any team that is a number 15 seed wins any game during any round of the main tournament of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If an opponent of any number 15 seed forfeits prior, or during the matchup, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is partially completed with otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ncaa-tournament-no-15-seed-to-win-a-game
| MrAlmostWhale | Yes | 254.04 |
| tbyrd2 | Yes | 250.09 |
| FullGamut | Yes | 200 |
| wonwin | Yes | 100 |
| Almad | Yes | 100 |
| mdgc | Yes | 100 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
